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7 Dirt Cheap S&P 500 Value Stocks for Massive Upside Potential for 2017 and 2018

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It is probably an understatement that the magnitude of the post-election rally has shocked many investors. Now many investors have been repositioning their investments as the Dow Jones Industrial Average went over 20,000 and the S&P 500 Index hit the 2,300 mark for the first time ever. This should be a time when investors want to consider if they ought to be in stocks or bonds, and they should be considering whether to chase growth or value.

24/7 Wall St. routinely reviews many undiscovered or overlooked companies and opportunities. Some of these end up being well-known, while some are unknown. With stocks at all-time highs, perhaps there may be some better safety in companies that are known and that offer “value” as well.

It is this value segment that has come front and center. In fact, there are still some S&P 500 Index stocks that are valued at less than or close to 10 times expected earnings. For a comparison, the S&P 500 Index was last seen valued at roughly 19.4 times 2016 earnings per share and was valued at about 17.4 times expected 2017 earnings per share.

One issue which investors need to consider is whether the “value” is really value or not. Of the companies in the 24/7 Wall St. screen, some of the stocks were shown to have over 20% (and some much more) in implied analyst upside to the consensus analyst price target, versus implied upside of about 8% to 15% for new Buy and Outperform analyst ratings in S&P 500 and DJIA stocks. When 24/7 Wall St. ran its 2017 Bull/Bear analysis for the Dow, we came up with a late 2017 target of DJIA 21,422 — which implies just over 7% from current levels before considering the dividend yields in a total return basis.

To value and growth investors alike, size often matters. Small cap stocks are often very risky and unproven. These S&P 500 companies all have market caps that are multi-billions, and they should more or less be easily recognized, even by those who have very limited investing experience. All of these issues combined may make these companies sound dirt cheap versus the market as a whole. Unfortunately, many of these companies might not be big beneficiaries of President Trump’s pro-growth initiatives that have driven many other stocks far higher.

Included in this review is a discount from the current share price to the Thomson Reuters consensus (mean) analyst price targets, recent share price performance metrics, valuation metrics, 52-week ranges and more. Additional fundamental color has been added on each stock as well, because it is important to know what may be keeping these stocks out of favor.

One common theme in these stocks is that they all are down handily from their 52-week highs. If the Dow and S&P indexes are close to all-time highs, then this means they are weak stocks in a strong market. Weak stocks usually scare most short-term investors away. Still, this is where value investors often start their screens to find oversold companies where the current share prices may come at a discount to the long-term value that companies may offer.

Before getting too caught up in “cheap” stocks and “value” stocks, it is important to understand that there is no free lunch on Wall Street. If a stock looks cheap, it because there is a reason (or many reasons) investors have not bought the stock up to much higher prices. This is how what is termed a “value trap” captures many investors off guard. The reality is that all of this can add up to serious risks for value investors.

Some value stocks also never really shed their “cheap/value” status. Some companies may even drift far lower before they ever begin to recover. Some value stocks are former growth stocks in which the growth story became interrupted. The past shows just how there can be risks as well: our eight stocks under 10 times earnings from 2015 included some stocks that have hardly budged, even if eight tech stocks from 2016 have done well so far.

Before investing in any value stocks, please use the 11 Crucial Issues For All Value Investors To Consider as a starting point. Not considering these and other options can rapidly make most new value investors find out the lessons of a value trap the hard way.

Here are seven of the cheapest value stocks at the start of February 2017  that are members of the S&P 500 Index. Again, do not overlook the reasons why they may look cheap.

American Airlines

American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) was last seen trading at $44.50, and the Thomson Reuters consensus analyst price target is $53.93. That implies 21% upside if the analysts are correct.

American Airlines shares might be up 25% from about six months ago, but its stock was last seen down about 5% since the end of 2016. Airlines are almost always screened out as “cheap stocks” and that theme continues into 2017. Maybe that was why it ended up as a top new Warren Buffett segment.

This airline stock is also among the cheapest valued airline stocks, and its old bankruptcy days are now years in the rear-view mirror. That being said, airlines in general now get to abuse their customers with lower comfort, less service and fee-gouging at just about every turn.

American Airlines share have a 52-week trading range of $24.85 to $50.64. At the current price level, shares are down almost 13% from the 52-week high and trade at 9.6 times next year’s earnings. The company has a total market cap of $22.9 billion.

AutoZone

With shares recently trading at $717.75, AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) has a consensus price target of $878.59. If analysts are correct, that implies upside of more than 22%. AutoZone shares are now down about 8% so far in 2017.

AutoZone may be a boring company to most American investors due to it selling car parts and just about everything you might need or want for your car. Even so, the company is a massive buyer of its own stock, and its shares are up close to 500% over the past 10 years.

There are some risks here when it comes to AutoZone, on top of massive outperformance in the past. Many of its products are made in America, but a border adjustment tax might not help out for the products and components which are not American-made. Another serious risk which has added some recent pain are reports that Amazon wants to grow its auto parts business.

AutoZone has a 52-week trading range of $681.01 to $819.54. Shares are now down 12% from the 52-week high and trade at 15.8 times next year’s earnings. The company has a total market cap of $20.6 billion.

Gilead Sciences

Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) was last trading at $72.60, versus a consensus price target of $93.58. This leaves an implied upside of 29%, and that is before considering its 2.5% dividend yield.

Gilead has been at the center of many drug pricing talks, but despite being down more than 10% from a year ago, the shares were up about 1% year to date. The ongoing growth days of Gilead have come to a peak, and many investors seem to be worried about how to price in a breakup or a major acquisition — or both.

Another consideration is that Gilead has now screened as a dirt cheap stock among biotech and pharma for two years now. There are more than one or two reasons. Another issue to consider is that Gilead’s pipeline is valued at almost nothing at the current price.

There is the notion that Gilead looks cheaper on the surface than major pharma stocks like Merck and Pfizer. Still, Jefferies did recently name Gilead among its cheap biopharma picks for 2017.

The 52-week trading range is $69.78 to $103.10. Gilead shares are down almost 30% from the 52-week high and trade at 6.8 times next year’s earnings. Its market cap is $95.6 billion.

Mylan

Last seen trading at $38.50 a share, Mylan N.V. (NASDAQ: MYL) has a consensus price target way up at $49.84. That implies upside of right at 30%, if the analysts manage to be correct overall.

Despite the anti-pricing talk on drugs (and pressure on generics) and being down about 27% from this time a year ago, Mylan shares were basically flat so far in 2017.

Mylan has changed over the years, but its corporate identity is often hard to understand. Some investors consider it mostly American, with a British headquarters and under a Dutch structure. Still, UBS named Mylan among quality growth stocks trading at reasonable share prices.

Shares of Mylan have traded between $33.60 and $53.21 in the past year. At the current price level, shares are down about 28% from the 52-week high, and they trade at 7.2 times next year’s earnings. The company’s total market cap is $20.5 billion.

Qualcomm

While Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) was recently trading at $53.25, its consensus analyst target is $66.00. If analysts are correct, that implies upside of about 24%, before considering a dividend yield that is nearing 4%.

One reason Qualcomm looks so cheap is because it is down 18% so far in 2017. Qualcomm has been a disappointing company with earnings for some time now, and many analysts have slashed price targets.

Other negatives have been impacting Qualcomm as well. It is being sued by Apple in a recent patent case which could cost hundreds of millions of dollars (or more) depending upon how far the fallout could go.

Its pending acquisition of NXP Semiconductor valued NXP with a total enterprise value of approximately $47 billion. This remains a huge diversification effort away from owning patents and selling more expensive processors for phones and tablets. That acquisition was signaled at the time the papers were signed to bring an addressable market opportunity of $138 billion by 2020.

Qualcomm’s 52-week trading range is $42.24 to $71.62. Shares currently are down 25.9% from the 52-week high and trade at 11.5 times next year’s earnings. The total market cap is $78.5 billion.

Newell Brands

Newell Brands Inc. (NYSE: NWL) was last seen trading at $47.40, and the consensus analyst price target is $57.31. That implies some 21% upside, if the analysts are on average correct, and that is before considering its 1.6% dividend yield. Newell’s 6% gain so far in 2017 looks less impressive than the 12% drop it has seen over the past six months.

Merrill Lynch recently named it among five cheap stocks for an expensive market. Newell hardly needs any introduction due to Newell and Rubbermaid brands, and just some of its other brands are Paper Mate, Sharpie, Elmer’s, Rawlings, Sunbeam, Graco, Calphalon and Yankee Candle.

One issue that may be weighing on its stock is an ongoing effort to simplify and strengthen its brand portfolio for accelerated growth. These can be difficult transitions for shareholders to understand. One other concern may be the border adjustment tax that could hurt American companies bringing in goods made overseas to sell to Americans.

Newell shares have a 52-week range of $33.26 to $55.45. Shares are down 14.4% from the 52-week high, and they trade at 15.9 times next year’s earnings. Newell has a total market cap of $22.9 billion.

TransDigm

And finally, TransDigm Group Inc. (NYSE: TDG), which recently traded at $218.50, has a consensus price target of $295.00, which implies upside of about 35% if analysts are correct. Unfortunately, TransDigm shares have sold off hard, with a 13% drop so far in 2017.

Its next earnings report is due on February 7, so investors might want to consider that there may be no additional hurry to jump into a weak stock ahead of earnings.

TransDigm makes aircraft components in the United States ,and its business segments are Power & Control, Airframe and Non-Aviation. TransDigm also has aerospace pneumatic and hydraulic components and subsystems, extruded plastic interior parts, faucets and unit load devices.

The 52-week range is $180.76 to $294.38. Shares are down 25.8% from the 52-week high and trade at 18.0 times next year’s earnings. TransDigm has a total market cap of $11.7 billion.

Again, stocks are not always attractive or good just because they screen as cheap or undervalued. Having a low P/E ratio usually means that there is very low growth, or that there may even be contracting revenues and/or earnings. It is very important to remember that the efficient market theory (which is constantly up for question) would dictate that the market is rarely wrong. Also, never forget this simple adage: The market can remain irrational for much longer than you can remain solvent.

 

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