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How Sirius Views Its Outlook in 2015

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) announced on Wednesday morning that its results for 2014 were ahead of the satellite radio player’s previously announced 2014 guidance. At the same time, the company issued guidance for the full year of 2015. Some might call the guidance soft for this year, but so far investors seemingly have taken to it.

Sirius noted that for the 2014 full year it had 27.3 million subscribers, a net addition of 1.75 million subscribers from the previous year. This beat out the guidance previously given by the company of 1.5 million net additions.

Self-pay net additions in 2014 were 1.44 million, which exceeded the company’s 2014 guidance of 1.25 million. Ultimately this resulted in a total of 22.5 million in self-pay subscriptions in 2014.

The fourth-quarter results, as well as the full-year results for 2014, are expected to come out on February 5, 2015.

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CEO Jim Meyer commented on 2014:

SiriusXM performed very well in 2014, exceeding our 2014 subscriber and financial guidance, even after pushing most of these targets higher during the year. With more people than ever subscribing to satellite radio, we expect the company’s strong performance to continue in 2015.

Looking ahead to 2015, the company issued the following guidance:

  • Net subscriber additions of roughly 1.2 million
  • Revenue of approximately $4.4 billion
  • Adjusted EBITDA of about $1.6 billion
  • Free cash flow of $1.25 billion

Thomson Reuters has consensus estimates for the 2015 full year revenue of $4.49 billion.

Meyer added:

Our exclusive, diverse, and expertly curated content continues to have widespread appeal. SiriusXM’s automotive distribution is growing by millions of units per year, and we expect to continue our exceptional track record of growth while simultaneously investing in innovative new services for the connected vehicle.

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The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $4.28, which implies an upside of 27.8% for 2015, compared to Tuesday’s close. The highest analyst price target is $5.00, which gives the highest upside of 49.3%.

Shares of Sirius closed Tuesday down 1.5% at $3.35. However, they initially responded positively to this news and were up over 1% to $3.39 in premarket trading Wednesday, against a 52-week trading range of $2.98 to $3.89. The company has a market cap of $18 billion.

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