How Russia's Military Capabilities Compare to NATO's

Military

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Published: May 9, 2024 11:50 am

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and now, more than two years later, the conflict remains ongoing with no end in sight. The invasion is widely interpreted as an attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to reclaim territory lost in the breakup of the Soviet Union — an event he has called “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century.”

Only weeks before the outbreak of the war, at a time when Russia had already amassed thousands of troops along the Ukrainian border, western powers rejected Putin’s demands that Ukraine never be admitted into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. But if Russia’s war was also intended as a safeguard against future NATO expansion, it has already proved an abject failure.

The NATO military alliance began in 1949, largely as a deterrent to Soviet expansion in Europe. Beginning with 12 founding member states — including Belgium, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States — an additional 20 countries have since ascended to NATO membership. Finland and Sweden, the two newest NATO members, joined the alliance in a direct response to war in Ukraine, abandoning their long-standing policy of military neutrality.

Under Article 5 of the founding NATO treaty, an attack against one ally is an attack against all. Currently, nine NATO members share a border with Russia, Ukraine, or both — and should Putin pursue territorial expansion across any one of those borders, an all-out war between Russia and NATO may be unavoidable.

Using data from Global Firepower’s 2024 report on international military capabilities, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed how NATO’s military strength compares to Russia’s. In the event of a conflict between Russia and NATO, individual NATO members would not likely be able to commit all military assets to the war effort. Global Firepower therefore assumed a minimum 25% contribution from each NATO ally to each category listed in this story — from active-duty troops and reserve forces to weapons and material. Similarly, Global Firepower assumed only 75% of Russian military assets to be available and operational. For context, we also included Global Firepower’s estimates of American military power and assets.

In most of the 27 categories of weapons, material, and other resources relevant to waging war on this list, the NATO alliance has the upper hand over Russia. Still, with twice the number of dedicated attack aircraft as NATO, three times the number of tanks, and nearly seven times the inventory of rocket artillery pieces, Russia has advantages in some key areas. (Here is a look at every Russian combat aircraft currently in service.)

However, in a total war scenario, many allies would likely put far a larger share of weapons, money, and manpower towards the effort than is assumed in Global Firepower’s analysis. The defense budget of the U.S. alone is more than 10 times that of Russia. Of the 27 categories of key military assets on this list, the U.S. has an advantage over Russia in all but seven — and in many of those areas, additional contributions from other NATO allies would go a long way toward closing the gap. (Here is a look at 20 of the U.S. military’s deadliest weapons.)

Why It Matters

Source: Adam Berry / Getty Images News via Getty Images

The ongoing war in Ukraine is the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II. While NATO has been supplying aid in the form of weapons and money to the Ukrainian effort, no NATO ally has engaged directly in combat — at least so far. Should the war spill across the border of a NATO country, all NATO allies will be obligated under the principle of collective defense to take up arms against Russia.