Technology

Three Differing Analyst Takes After Micron's Analyst Day

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) held its winter analyst meeting on February 7, and shares closed at $24.51 on Friday, against a 52-week trading range of $7.64 to $24.77. After the meeting we have seen several analyst comments on the stock.

24/7 Wall St. is reviewing different calls from the likes of Credit Suisse, Sterne Agee, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. We have outlined each of those calls: one is Buy, one is Outperform and one is the equivalent of a Sell rating.

Credit Suisse maintained its Outperform rating and $30 price target. Micron is a top pick for 2014 at the firm. The firm said:

We see fair value approaching 10x earnings potential, implying upside to our TP of $30. The Analyst Day was broadly in line with our expectation and highlighted the structural improvements in the industry. Three key takeaways: (i) Memory industry has undergone a paradigm shift and the Memory suppliers benefit from industry consolidation, slowing supply growth and a demand growth driven by wide range of applications. We continue to believe that industry can structurally sustain higher level of margins going forward due to the structural changes in the industry. (ii) The company is using ongoing cash generation to help improve the balance sheet and is targeting reduction of converts/debt with goal of reducing debt to capital ratio to 20-25% over next two years from 39% currently. The company has already taken actions to reduce economic dilution associated with convertible by 107mn shares. (iii) The company plans to employ a strategy of moving greater amount of business to higher value segments with mix of Embedded, Networking, Server and Enterprise Storage increasing from 27% in 2014 to 43% by 2015.

Sterne Agee reiterated its Buy rating and $28 price target. It said:

Micron hosted its analyst day on 2/7 in Scottsdale. We believe the key takeaways are: 1) MU noted industry DRAM wafer capacity will be down in 2014, 2015, and 2016, 2) 3D NAND cost of transition is ~8x that of 14nm transition and 2x that of 20nm transition with wafer output down 30-50% versus 20nm planar, which shows the challenges in 3D-NAND transition, 3) no new greenfield capacity for an extended period, and a 4) focus on margins, debt reduction, and shareholder return with buybacks.

Merrill Lynch has an Underperform rating, and it said:

Micron reported strong Nov-13 end quarter results (ex-exceptional OP/OPM about US$0.8bn/19%). FCF was also strong given OCF of US$1.5bn vs cash spend for PP&E at only US$0.5bn. That said, capex guidance remains unchanged — still lower than our estimate (US$2.9bn vs US$3.5bn). Near-term bit growth for DRAM also appears low (flat QoQ). Net-net, Micron’s upbeat momentum does not imply any threat to other chipmakers such as SK Hynix. That said, we still believe Micron’s stock performance won’t be strong due to high PBR (market cap $25bn vs current equity $9bn) and potentially softening DRAM price after CNY holidays and low exposure to new 2xnm DRAM (vs Samsung/Hynix).

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