Electric Car Maker Files for Bankruptcy, Sales for Others Still Slow (F, HEV, GM, TM, HMC, TSLA)

Norway’s entry in the electric vehicle (EV) sweepstakes, Think (or sometimes, Th!nk) has filed for bankruptcy because the company has been unable to find long-term financing. The company, once owned by Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), had already survived two trips through receivership. Whether or not this is a harbinger of things to come in the EV space depends on one’s initial perspective.

One certain loser here is Ener1, Inc. (NASDAQ: HEV), which supplied the lithium-ion batteries for Think. But what about the other EV makers: General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) and its all-electric Chevy Volt; Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) and Honda Motor Corp. (NYSE: HMC) with their hybrids; and Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), maker of an all-electric sports car?

The market for hybrids and all-electric cars in the US in 2011 has always been projected to be quite small. Through May, about 118,000 hybrids have been sold in the US and just over 4,400 plug-in EVs. Toyota’s Prius gets about half the hybrid total. For plug-ins, the Chevy Volt has sold 2,184 cars this year, and the Nissan Leaf has sold 2,167.

There are at least a couple of ways to look at the number of plug-ins sold. One is that disruptions caused the earthquake and tsunami in Japan have weighed on production. The car makers are trying to meet demand for demos and showrooms, and still haven’t ramped production to meet demand.

If one subscribes to that view, the problem is supply, not demand. Chevy has upped its manufacturing total for 2011 to 16,000 Volts, a third more than its original plan. Nissan had planned to deliver 20,000 of its Leafs this year. Once production glitches are solved and dealers have received demo and showroom models, the makers will begin to fulfill customer demand.

Another way of looking at the same numbers is to say that while all this may be true, the current backlog of buyers’ orders is coming from early adopters who are not sensitive to price and that they represent a very small fraction of new car buyers. Until the EVs attract a larger audience with lower prices and better marketing, massive buying of EVs is in the distant future. Estimates of sales top out at about 500,000 units annually in 2020.

There are also too many players in the game, though the departure of Think helps simplify the market. European maker Smart, Fisker, and others even smaller have made noise but few sales. Their future is problematic, certainly, with Toyota, Ford, Honda, and Nissan and their deep pockets taking the top positions in sales. Even Tesla, which expects to introduce its $58,000 sedan next year, could have a tough time holding on.

And in related story, Swedish icon Saab may be in its death throes. The company, now privately held, is reportedly unable to meet its payroll, and efforts to get new investors have come to nothing so far. Saab workers could seal the company’s fate by going to court and demanding that the company be declared bankrupt, which would begin providing the workers with a government-guaranteed salary.

Shares in battery maker Ener1 are off more than -9% this morning, at $1.17, near the bottom of their 52-week range of $1.06-$5.90. Tesla’s shares are down about -2%, to $26.74, in a 52-week range of $14.98-$36.42.

Paul Ausick