Tyson Foods’ Earnings Show Higher Costs, Food Inflation Warning

Tyson provided an update its fiscal 2014 outlook. Sales are forecast at $37 billion even though the company expects sales of its chicken, beef, pork and turkey products to decrease by 1% for the year. The decrease is the result of the virus that is currently decimating the U.S. hog population. The company does expect chicken production to rise 2% to 3%. Beef supplies are expected to be down 3% to 4% and pork production is forecast to be down 4% to 5%.

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Tyson’s CEO said:

We had a record second quarter, which is a testament to our great team and our balanced multi-protein, multi-channel, multi-national business model. Our second quarter is usually our most challenging. We had a lot to overcome, including a harsher than normal winter, but I’m satisfied with the results. I’m still confident in my expectations for the year that we will achieve our goal of 6-8% sales growth in value-added products while generating at least $2.78 earnings per share.

Tyson’s EPS estimate is way below the consensus call for $2.92 a share. Is the analysts’ estimate that far out of line with the reality of the food market or is Tyson’s CEO sandbagging? The company is warning that international chicken sales, particularly in China, are going to slow down and that beef and pork production also will be below usual levels. The prepared foods division remains an opportunity, that is sucking up investment and will be for the rest of the year.

Shares were up about 1.5% in premarket trading to $43.15, in a 52-week range of $23.39 to $44.24. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $42.60 before this report.

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