Military

Rockwell Collins Earnings Tied to Airbus, Boeing

courtesy of Bombardier Inc.

Rockwell Collins Inc. (NYSE: COL) reported third-quarter fiscal 2016 results before markets opened Monday. The defense company posted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.63 on revenues of $1.33 billion. In the same period a year ago, the company reported EPS of $1.33 on revenues of $1.29 billion. Third-quarter results also compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $1.59 and $1.35 billion in revenues.

Rockwell’s commercial systems division is a supplier for commercial aircraft makers Airbus, Boeing, and Bombardier. The sales forecast for the division has been lowered, among other reasons, due to “lower business aircraft OEM production rates,” lower deliveries to a Chinese customer, and lower production of the Airbus A330 widebody aircraft. Rockwell Collins noted:

These decreases were mostly offset by higher product deliveries in support of the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 production ramps, favorable customer timing for airline selectable equipment, higher product deliveries for the Bombardier CSeries program, and higher customer-funded development program revenues.

Both Airbus and The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) seemed to have stalled on new orders for their widebody planes, but both are also ramping production on the Airbus A350 and the Boeing 787. But as Rockwell noted, the production rate on the Airbus A330 has slowed.

Airbus said in February that it planned to increase production from 6 to 7 per month beginning in January 2017. Airbus has delivered just 28 A330s in the first 6 months of 2016 and has reported 38 new orders for the plane in the same time period. The company’s total backlog for the A330 family is 349, about 4 years at 7 planes per month.

The company tightened its outlook for full fiscal year earnings from a prior range of $5.45 to $5.65 to a new range of $5.50 to $5.55. Total sales are now pegged at the lower end of the prior range of $5.3 to $5.4 billion. Cash flow from operations is expected to come in at the lower end of the prior range of $650 to $750 million.

Analysts have forecast fourth-quarter EPS at $1.60 and revenues at $1.5 billion. For the full-year analysts are looking for EPS of $5.49 on revenues of $5.33 billion.

Chairman, CEO, and president Kelly Ortberg explained:

Lower-than-anticipated business aircraft OEM production rates and air transport aftermarket service and support sales have impacted our Commercial Systems revenue outlook. We now expect Commercial Systems sales to be down about 1% for the year. In addition, we now forecast our cash flow from operations at the lower end of the previously guided range due to the timing of receivable collections and higher spending for pre-production engineering costs. In spite of these market challenges, our strong operational performance has allowed us to narrow our earnings per share estimate for fiscal year 2016 within the previously guided range.

The company’s government systems division reported a 5% year-over-year revenue increase and a 6% increase in profits. Operating margin rose 30 basis points to 20.7%. Government system sales totaled $555 million in the quarter, just behind $612 million in commercial sales.

We shouldn’t see much movement in the stock price because estimates had already been adjusted to the low end of the company’s previous ranges. But if there was little expectation that the company had a chance at the high end of those ranges, that lack of confidence could carry over to the new guidance.

Rockwell Collins’s shares closed down about 0.6% for the day on Friday at $85.19, in a 52-week range of $76.03 to $95.11. Shares are inactive in Monday’s premarket. The consensus target price for the shares was $95.57 before the report.

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