The general election is only six months away, and while the Biden team is campaigning across the country, former President Donald Trump is confined to a Manhattan courtroom four days a week. Despite facing dozens of felony charges, including many tied to the hush money case for which he now stands trial, Trump is in a dead-heat with his Democratic rival for the White House.
The latest average of 688 national polls, published by The Hill, has both Trump and Biden polling at 44.5%. These latest numbers reflect an erosion of voter support for the former president, as for much of the last year, Trump has been leading Biden in the polls.
To regain an edge and win in November, Trump will need to mobilize a broad coalition of voters. To this end, the Trump campaign will target Americans within specific demographic groups over the coming months. Currently, Trump is performing far better with certain subsets of voters.
Using data from public opinion research company Morning Consult, 24/7 Wall St. identified the Americans who are most likely to vote for Trump. We reviewed the share of Americans across 22 demographic segments who would vote for Trump if the election were today. The demographics on this list fall into one of seven categories: voting history, age, generation, education, ethnicity, political ideology, and assessments of Biden’s job as president. In the case of a tie, the demographic group with the larger sample size ranks higher. All polling data is current as of April 28, 2024. Due to rounding, percentages may not add to 100%.
Among the classifications of Americans on this list, the share who would vote for Trump today ranges from only 5% to nearly 90%. Not surprisingly, the strongest predictors of support for the former president are those directly related to politics. The Americans most likely to vote for Trump voted for him in 2020, disapprove of the current administration, and identify as ideologically conservative. Trump also has relatively strong support from White Americans, voters without a college degree, and those between the ages of 45 and 64. (Here is a look at Biden’s approval rating in every state.)
Although Trump has fallen in the polls in recent weeks, over the last year, his popularity has grown with many demographic groups on this list. Since April 2023, Trump has gained ground with 17 groups on this list, including Millennial, Gen Z, and Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, support for the former president has only fallen with retirement age voters.
Notably, within each of these groups, some share of voters do not yet know who they will support. Among the groups on this list, the share of undecided voters ranges from 2% to 9%. A second term for Trump may well hinge on his campaign’s ability to reach these voters. (This is how Biden compares to Trump in every swing state.)
Why It Matters
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Home to over 333 million people, the United States is one of the largest democracies in world history. With such a broad constituency of diverging interests and priorities, it is impossible for political candidates to appeal to every voter. But while no two voters are exactly alike, patterns within key demographic groups can shed light on where presidential campaigns need to focus their energy.
22. Americans who voted for Joe Biden in 2020
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 5% (+2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 92% (-2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 4% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
21. Americans who approve of Joe Biden’s job in office
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 8% (+2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 91% (-1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 2% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
20. Americans who identify as ideologically Liberal
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 13% (+4 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 86% (-3 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 2% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
19. African Americans
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 20% (+3 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 72% (-3 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 8% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
18. Americans who identify as ideologically moderate
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 34% (+3 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 59% (-5 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 7% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
17. Hispanic Americans
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 36% (+4 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 57% (-7 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 7% (+4 ppt. from 1 year ago)
16. Americans age 35-44
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 38% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 58% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 4% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
15. College graduates
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 39% (+3 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 57% (-3 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 4% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
13. Americans under age 45
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 41% (+4 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 53% (-5 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 6% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
14. Millennials
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 41% (+5 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 54% (-6 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 5% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
12. GenZers
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 42% (+5 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 49% (-5 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 9% (-1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
11. Americans age 18-34
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 43% (+7 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 50% (-8 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 7% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
10. All registered voters
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 43% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 51% (-4 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 5% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
8. Baby Boomers
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 44% (-2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 52% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 4% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
9. Americans age 65 and up
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 44% (-2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 53% (+2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 4% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
7. GenXers
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 45% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 50% (-2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 5% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
6. Americans age 45-64
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 46% (+2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 50% (-3 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 5% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
5. Americans with no college education
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 48% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 46% (-1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 6% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
4. White Americans
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 49% (+2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 47% (-3 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 4% (+1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
3. Americans who disapprove of Joe Biden’s job in office
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 72% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 23% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 5% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
2. Americans who identify as ideologically conservative
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 75% (+2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 21% (-3 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 3% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
1. Americans who voted for Donald Trump in 2020
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- Would vote for Trump if the election were today: 88% (+2 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Would vote for someone else if the election were today: 9% (-1 ppt. from 1 year ago)
- Undecided: 3% (unchanged from 1 year ago)
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