Cities Americans Are Abandoning in Droves

Population and Social Characteristics

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Published: May 13, 2024 9:50 am

Several factors determine the attractiveness of a city, and when these factors turn negative, cities often lose residents. Some subjective factors include weather, community, and vibrancy. Other factors are more objective. Economic opportunity in the form of jobs or a robust economic climate is one such factor. Another is affordability, often measured by the cost of living and the cost of housing.

The U.S. population grew by 0.49% from July 2022 to July 2023, with natural change (births minus deaths) contributing 0.15% to growth and immigration contributing 0.34%. In cities across the nation, the population change during that time ranged from a decline of 1.2% to a growth of 4.7%. If we look specifically at how net migration (people coming in less people leaving) contributed to population change in U.S. cities, some gained over 6% from migration, while other lost nearly 1.4% of residents in the past year.

To determine the cities Americans are abandoning, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population and Housing Unit Estimates program. Metropolitan statistical areas were ranked based on the percentage change in population due to net migration alone from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, and we included the 36 cities where net migration contributed at least 0.4% to population decline (even if the overall population grew). Data on median home value came from the Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community and figures are one-year estimates. Unemployment rates for March 2024 came from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and are not seasonally adjusted.

The list includes several large metros, such as New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, but also considerably smaller ones, such as Eagle Pass, Texas, and Minot, North Dakota. (Also see: States That Will Grow the Most by 2040.)

The West region has by far the most cities on the list, at 16, including 12 in California alone. In 15 of the cities on the list, including 10 in California, the median home value is higher than the national median of $320,900 in 2022.

The next regions with the most cities on the list are the Midwest, with nine, and the South, with eight. In many of these cities, the March 2024 unemployment rate is higher than the national rate of 3.8%. In all, this is true in 28 of the 36 cities on the list, including four cities in which the unemployment rate is in the double digits. In some cities, both the unemployment rate and the home value are higher than the national averages.

Though all cities on the list lost population due to net migration also in the longer term, since 2020, the trend is not necessarily worsening in all cities. For example, while San Francisco lost 4.5% of its population since April 2020, the trend seems to have slowed over the past year, as it lost 0.5% of its population. On the other hand, in Lawton, Oklahoma, the trend seems to be worsening.

Why Are We Covering This

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Population growth comprises both natural change — births minus deaths — and net migration (people moving in minus people moving out). While some cities manage to grow mostly through natural change, the ability to attract new residents is often a sign of a positive economic environment among other things. When more residents choose to leave, something may be amiss that local governments need to address. For people considering a move, the cities on the list may not be the first choice.