Cities That Will Empty Out By End of Century

Population and Social Characteristics

Published: May 24, 2024 10:00 am

Last Updated: May 24, 2024 12:08 pm

Nearly half of the over 31,000 cities in the United States will face some sort of population decline by the end of the century, according to a recently published study in Nature. An estimated 12% to 23% of the population will leave between 27% to 44% of the cities.

While this may sound far off, it does show possible trajectories to consider for Americans considering a move and for governments that need to adjust. To estimate future trends, the study considered projections under five scenarios, from environmentally friendly development to fossil-fueled development.

24/7 Wall St. reviewed the study, Depopulation and associated challenges for US cities by 2100, listing here the 26 cities with 2020 population above 10,000 that are projected to shrink by at least 50% by 2100 — under the middle of the road scenario, which includes intermediate challenges. We also added socioeconomic data — median household income, poverty rate, unemployment rate, bachelor’s degree attainment rate — from the Census Bureau’s 5-year estimates 2022 American Community Survey.

The Midwest region has the most cities on the list, at 12 (including six cities in Illinois and four in Michigan), followed by the South with eight cities, the Northeast at five (including three in New York state), and only one city in the West. Of the 24 cities with data, all have a far lower median household income, much higher poverty, and much lower bachelor’s degree attainment rate than the national figures. Similarly, just four cities have a lower unemployment rate than the comparable national figure.

The largest city on the list is Flint, Michigan, which is projected to lose nearly 61% of its 2020 population of over 81,000 by 2100. Decatur, Illinois, which had nearly 71,000 residents in 2020, is also projected to lose nearly 61% of its population by 2100. (In the past five years here are Cities Americans Are Abandoning in Droves.)

While these are the results strictly for the 26 cities on the list (selected by the criteria noted above), the study’s overall findings indicate that a larger number of depopulating cities will be in the Northeast and Midwest than the South and West regions (although many cities in the North and Midwest will still grow). Within states there could be variations as well. For example, in California, the southern coast may lose population, while the northern coast may gain population. And surprisingly, though Texas and Utah cities are generally growing, they are projected to have a fair share of cities losing population. Finally, except for the District of Columbia and Hawaii, all states will have cities that are depopulating.

Why This Matters

Source: Jonathan Weiss / Shutterstock.com

Cities that have declining populations have to deal with socioeconomic, environmental, and infrastructure challenges to accommodate the remaining population. Residents of depopulating cities can see disruptions in basic services like transit, clean water, electricity, proper sewage system, solid waste management, social services, health care access, and more as adjusting larger systems to a smaller population with a decreasing tax revenue can prove difficult. Such cities need to plan ahead, either to find ways to attract new population or keep the current population, or plan ahead to address depopulation challenges.