Special Report

Trump in Dead Heats With Biden and Sanders, Half of Voters "Silently" Support Trump

With Trump riding high on his latest job approval numbers (Zogby Analytics has him at 51% approve/47% disapprove on 8/15/19) and record high U.S. direction — 47% of likely voters surveyed, say the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” and 47% say it’s “off on the wrong track.”

The right direction number is the highest we have tracked in years. It’s an important indicator of how people feel about the overall health of the economy and society. Both figures could explain how Trump has tightened up polling in head-to-head races with his 2020 Democratic rivals. As of just a few months ago, our polling had Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders beating Trump by double digits, while Warren, Harris and Buttigieg were in closer races with Trump.

Overall, Trump (46%) and Biden (45%) were statistically tied, while 9% of voters are not sure. Biden does well with voters under the age of 50, more specifically millennials age 18-29 — Biden wins 50% to 38%. Trump, on the other hand, wins with voters older than 50, more specifically, voters aged 65+ —Trump leads Biden 56% to 40%. There were no surprises when it came to gender. Biden wins with women (Biden leads 48% to 39%) and Trump wins with men (Trumps is ahead 53% to 42%).

Where Trump does his damage is he bests Biden with independents (Trump leads 44% to 36%), small-city voters (Trump leads 47% to 43%), suburban voters (Trump leads 45% to 44%) and both candidates are tied with large-city voters (Biden leads 46% to 45%). When it came to race, Biden wins with African Americans (Biden leads 74% to 21%), but both candidates do well with Hispanics (Biden leads 48% to 46%).

Biden and Trump were virtually tied in the East and South, while Trump won with likely voters in the central region (Trump leads 49% to 43%) and Biden convincingly won the West (Biden leads 48% to 41%).

Among unique sub-groups, President Trump won with consumers, such as weekly Walmart shoppers (Trump leads 52% to 41%) and Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 54% to 43%). The president also dominated with NASCAR fans; 63% backed Trump, while 32% supported Biden. Biden did better with suburban women (Biden leads 50% to 35%).

If the 2020 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders, who would you vote for? % US
Republican Donald Trump 45
Democrat Bernie Sanders 44
Not sure 11

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