Since announcing in April 2023 plans to run for a second term, President Joe Biden has been the presumptive Democratic candidate in the 2024 race for the White House. How he fares on Election Day will largely hinge Americans’ assessment of his job performance during his first four years in office and so far, public opinion has not been moving in Biden’s favor.
According to survey and data services company Morning Consult, Biden had the approval of a majority of American voters throughout the first eight months of his presidency. However, in the last two years, Biden’s approval rating has been underwater, with a larger share of Americans disapproving of his presidency.
The shift in public opinion toward the Biden administration began immediately following the August 2021 withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Though the decision to end the U.S. military presence in the country was a popular one, the administration’s execution was widely criticized, as it ultimately resulted in a refugee crisis and the re-ascension of the Taliban.
Perceptions of Biden’s job performance have not recovered since the chaotic withdrawal. Since taking office, Biden’s approval rating has fallen in each of the 50 states.
Using state level survey data from Morning Consult, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states where Biden’s approval rating has fallen the most so far in his presidency. States are ranked by the change in the share of registered voters who approve of Biden’s handling of the job from when he took office in the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2023, the most recent available data.
Depending on the state, the president’s approval rating has fallen anywhere from 3 percentage points to as many as 16. Many of the states where Biden’s approval rating has fallen the most during his first two years in office are states he won in the last presidential election. In Massachusetts and Vermont, for example, Biden won 65.6% and 66.1% of the popular vote, respectively – his two best performances at the state level. In each of these states, his popularity has plummeted by 15 points. (Here is a look at which Americans have the highest and lowest Biden approval ratings.)
Of course, voter sentiment is not set in stone, and with more than a year until the presidential election, much can change. Who Republican voters nominate as their candidate could also play a decisive role in the outcome of the 2024 election. (Here is a look at the most important political issues to American voters.)
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