Politics

States Where Support for Biden Is Slipping Away

Sam Stebbins

Published: June 24, 2024 8:50 am

In the modern, post-World War II era, American presidents typically have a honeymoon phase — a period defined by high approval ratings and optimism among voters. But, as is often the case, President Joe Biden’s was short-lived. After taking the oath of office in January 2021, Biden’s job approval rating stood at 57%, according to Gallup. By the summer — when American forces withdrew from Afghanistan, ceding control of the country back to the Taliban — Biden’s approval rating fell below 50%, and it has remained there ever since.

Despite some fluctuations over the intervening 12 months, Biden’s approval rating stood at 39% in May 2024, unchanged from his approval rating in May 2023. However, national polls like Gallup’s fail to capture nuances in public opinion at the state level. And in much of the country, the share of voters who approve of the Biden presidency has fallen meaningfully in the last year.

Using survey data from Morning Consult, a public opinion research company, 24/7 Wall St. identified the states where Biden’s approval rating fell the most in the last year. Survey responses were collected between March 1 and June 1 in both 2023 and 2024, and states were ranked by the percentage point decline in the president’s approval rating between those periods. Only states where Biden’s approval rating fell by at least 1 percentage point were considered.

Among the 25 states on this list, Biden’s approval rating fell by as much as 14.4 percentage points. In five of these states, Biden’s approval rating was higher than his disapproval rating in 2023. However, flagging support over the last 12 months has now left the president’s approval rating under water in all but two states on this list.

Despite growing discontent with the president, when compared to the rest of the country, Biden remains popular in many of these places. In 14 states on this list, many of which have historically been Democratic strongholds, Biden’s approval rating is 40% or higher. (Here is a look at President Biden’s approval rating in every state.)

While there are several states on this list — including Oklahoma and Wyoming — where Biden has never been popular, the majority of this list is made up of states that Biden won in 2020. Whether recent shifts in public opinion will be enough to flip these places to Trump in 2024 remains to be seen. (Here is a look at which candidate is leading in every swing state.)

Why It Matters

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Presidential approval ratings are not a direct indicator of how Americans will vote on Election Day. Still, they offer valuable insight into public sentiment regarding the current administration — and in most of the country, President Biden’s approval ratings have been slipping in recent months. With an election looming, the Biden campaign will likely be targeting states that have historically voted Democratic, but where large shares of voters are dissatisfied with the job he is doing as president.

25. Nevada

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.0 ppt. (39.4% in 2023 to 38.4% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.0 ppt. (56.7% in 2023 to 58.7% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.9 ppt. (3.8% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (50.1% Biden, 47.7% Trump)
• Nevada’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes

24. New York

Walkway Over The Hudson (CC BY 2.0) by Paul VanDerWerf

• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.1 ppt. (50.5% in 2023 to 49.5% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +1.2 ppt. (46.3% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.1 ppt. (3.2% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (60.9% Biden, 37.7% Trump)
• New York’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 28 votes

23. Wisconsin

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.1 ppt. (41.5% in 2023 to 40.4% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +0.3 ppt. (56.2% in 2023 to 56.5% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.8 ppt. (2.3% in 2023 to 3.1% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (49.4% Biden, 48.8% Trump)
• Wisconsin’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 10 votes

22. Delaware

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.2 ppt. (45.6% in 2023 to 44.4% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.4 ppt. (50.5% in 2023 to 52.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -1.2 ppt. (3.9% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (58.7% Biden, 39.8% Trump)
• Delaware’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes

21. New Jersey

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.2 ppt. (45.2% in 2023 to 44.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.1 ppt. (50.8% in 2023 to 52.8% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.8 ppt. (4.0% in 2023 to 3.2% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (57.3% Biden, 41.4% Trump)
• New Jersey’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 14 votes

20. Kentucky

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.3 ppt. (30.0% in 2023 to 28.7% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +1.8 ppt. (67.1% in 2023 to 68.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.5 ppt. (2.9% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (36.2% Biden, 62.1% Trump)
• Kentucky’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 8 votes

19. Georgia

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.6 ppt. (42.4% in 2023 to 40.8% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.1 ppt. (53.9% in 2023 to 56.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.6 ppt. (3.7% in 2023 to 3.1% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (49.5% Biden, 49.3% Trump)
• Georgia’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 16 votes

18. Ohio

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.6 ppt. (36.4% in 2023 to 34.7% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +1.8 ppt. (60.4% in 2023 to 62.3% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.2 ppt. (3.2% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (45.2% Biden, 53.3% Trump)
• Ohio’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 17 votes

17. Oregon

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.6 ppt. (45.0% in 2023 to 43.4% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +1.6 ppt. (52.4% in 2023 to 54.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.0 ppt. (2.6% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (56.5% Biden, 40.4% Trump)
• Oregon’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 8 votes

16. Virginia

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.7 ppt. (43.7% in 2023 to 41.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.0 ppt. (53.0% in 2023 to 55.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.3 ppt. (3.3% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (54.1% Biden, 44.0% Trump)
• Virginia’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 13 votes

15. Connecticut

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.7 ppt. (46.8% in 2023 to 45.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +3.1 ppt. (49.0% in 2023 to 52.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -1.3 ppt. (4.2% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (59.3% Biden, 39.2% Trump)
• Connecticut’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 7 votes

14. California

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -1.8 ppt. (54.3% in 2023 to 52.5% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +1.9 ppt. (42.2% in 2023 to 44.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.1 ppt. (3.5% in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (63.5% Biden, 34.3% Trump)
• California’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 54 votes

13. Louisiana

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -2.2 ppt. (36.4% in 2023 to 34.3% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.4 ppt. (59.5% in 2023 to 61.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.3 ppt. (4.1% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (39.9% Biden, 58.5% Trump)
• Louisiana’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 8 votes

12. Alaska

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -2.3 ppt. (43.6% in 2023 to 41.3% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.5 ppt. (51.3% in 2023 to 53.8% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.2 ppt. (5.1% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (42.8% Biden, 52.8% Trump)
• Alaska’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes

11. Idaho

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -2.5 ppt. (33.2% in 2023 to 30.6% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: -0.1 ppt. (65.2% in 2023 to 65.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +2.6 ppt. (1.7% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (33.1% Biden, 63.9% Trump)
• Idaho’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes

10. Montana

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -2.6 ppt. (37.5% in 2023 to 34.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.4 ppt. (60.6% in 2023 to 63.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.2 ppt. (1.9% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (40.5% Biden, 56.9% Trump)
• Montana’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes

9. Oklahoma

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -2.7 ppt. (29.5% in 2023 to 26.7% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +3.3 ppt. (67.4% in 2023 to 70.7% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.6 ppt. (3.2% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (32.3% Biden, 65.4% Trump)
• Oklahoma’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 7 votes

8. Utah

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -3.1 ppt. (33.3% in 2023 to 30.2% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.0 ppt. (63.2% in 2023 to 65.3% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +1.1 ppt. (3.5% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (37.6% Biden, 58.1% Trump)
• Utah’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 6 votes

7. Minnesota

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -3.7 ppt. (43.7% in 2023 to 40.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +2.4 ppt. (54.1% in 2023 to 56.5% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +1.3 ppt. (2.3% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (52.4% Biden, 45.3% Trump)
• Minnesota’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 10 votes

6. Wyoming

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -3.9 ppt. (22.2% in 2023 to 18.3% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +4.9 ppt. (76.7% in 2023 to 81.6% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -1.0 ppt. (1.1% in 2023 to 0.1% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (26.6% Biden, 69.9% Trump)
• Wyoming’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes

5. Maine

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -4.0 ppt. (42.0% in 2023 to 38.0% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +4.9 ppt. (55.4% in 2023 to 60.3% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -0.8 ppt. (2.6% in 2023 to 1.8% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (53.1% Biden, 44.0% Trump)
• Maine’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes

4. Illinois

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -4.1 ppt. (48.8% in 2023 to 44.7% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +4.0 ppt. (47.9% in 2023 to 51.9% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.1 ppt. (3.3% in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (57.5% Biden, 40.6% Trump)
• Illinois’ 2024 electoral college allocation: 19 votes

3. Vermont

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -4.4 ppt. (53.5% in 2023 to 49.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +5.5 ppt. (45.2% in 2023 to 50.8% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: -1.1 ppt. (1.2% in 2023 to 0.1% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (66.1% Biden, 30.7% Trump)
• Vermont’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 3 votes

2. Nebraska

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -4.7 ppt. (33.9% in 2023 to 29.3% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +4.3 ppt. (64.4% in 2023 to 68.8% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.3 ppt. (1.7% in 2023 to 2.0% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Trump (39.4% Biden, 58.5% Trump)
• Nebraska’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 5 votes

1. Hawaii

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• 1-yr change in Biden’s approval rating: -14.4 ppt. (58.0% in 2023 to 43.6% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in Biden’s disapproval rating: +14.0 ppt. (37.0% in 2023 to 51.1% in 2024)
• 1-yr change in voters with no opinion: +0.3 ppt. (4.9% in 2023 to 5.3% in 2024)
• 2020 presidential election winner: Biden (63.7% Biden, 34.3% Trump)
• Hawaii’s 2024 electoral college allocation: 4 votes